You decide to play roulette 4 times, each time betting on red. What is the distribution of X, the number of times you win?
1.
If betting on red, 18/38 = 9/19 chance of winning, so 10/19 chance of losing
Chance of winning 4 times: (9/19)^4 = 6561/130321 =~ 5.034%
Chance of winning 3 times: (9/19)^3 (10/19) C(4,1) = 29160/130321 =~ 22.3755%
Chance of winning 2 times: (9/19)^2 (10/19)^2 C(4,2) = 48600/130321 =~ 37.2925%
Chance of winning 1 time: (9/19) (10/19)^3 C(4,3) = 36000/130321 =~ 27.624%
Chance of winning 0 times: (10/39)^4 = 10000/130321 =~ 76.7336%
Using the concept of binomial probability, the distribution of X which is the number of winning is ;
Given the parmaters :
The probability of winning, p on a single play :
Number of plays = 4
Number of winnings = X
Using the binomial probability relation :
For X = 0 :
P(x = 0) = 4C0 × (9/19)^0 × (10/19)⁴ = 0.0767
For X = 1 :
P(x = 0) = 4C1 × (9/19)¹ × (10/19)³ = 0.2762
For X = 2 :
P(x = 2) = 4C2 × (9/19)² × (10/19)² = 0.3729
For X = 3 :
P(x = 3) = 4C3 × (9/19)³ × (10/19)¹ = 0.2238
For X = 4 :
P(x = 4) = 4C4 × (9/19)⁴ × (10/19)^0 = 0.0503
Therefore, the distribution of X in the roulette spin is :
X ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 3 ______ 4
P(X):_0.0767_0.2762_0.3729_0.2238 _0.0503
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